Futures Digest #5: Is the Pact for the Future enough for a better tomorrow?

As we explored the implications of this significant milestone adopted by the UNGA, we gathered feedback from the futures community regarding the Pact for the Future and its commitments.

The Pact for the Future, recently adopted by world leaders at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), covers a broad range of topics, including peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, science, technology, innovation and digital cooperation, human rights, youth and future generations, and global governance. The Pact reaffirms world leaders’ pledge “to reinvigorate global action to ensure the future we want and to effectively respond to current and future challenges” and commits to 56 actions to this end. It also includes a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations as annexes, and it is stated to be action-oriented.

In a previous article, we highlighted how the Pact drew insights from earlier processes, its main contents and commitments, and what may immediately catch the eye of a futurist—such as the focus on future generations and the appointment of a special envoy, the attention to rising catastrophic and existential risks, and the commitment to support international governance of artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity. As we navigated this significant milestone, we wondered what the futures community thinks about it and gathered insights and perspectives.

Jerome Glenn, CEO and Co-Founder of The Millennium Project, applauds the Pact as a “massively complex and quite comprehensive normative statement that recognizes existential risks and the potential of global transformation to a better future for all.” However, he also expresses significant disappointments regarding its contents: “Much of the text is more about reaffirming past agreements than about the potential futures of civilization,” a sentiment that seems to resonate with many. He further highlights notable omissions: “There was not a word about synthetic biology—potentially a bigger impact on the future of civilization than the industrial revolution. Most children born today will see the year 2100, and nearly all of their lives will be augmented by Artificial Superintelligences—no evidence of this kind of insight is anywhere.”

When expected topics are covered by the Pact, such as governing AI at an international level, the results appear unsatisfactory in some instances. Glenn remarks that the “Global Governance of the transition from Artificial Intelligence (AI) we have today to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) we could have within this decade is the most complex and difficult management question humanity has ever faced. Its urgency is not mentioned anywhere except for some mild statements in the Global Digital Compact.” These include enhancing AI governance for humanity’s benefit, governing AI in the public interest, ensuring that it fosters diverse cultures, defining an agile, multidisciplinary, and adaptable multi-stakeholder approach with the UN playing a key role, and establishing a UN-based Independent International Scientific Panel on AI for evidence-based risk and opportunity assessments. Additionally, he suggests carefully defining the criteria for selecting the experts of the panel and establishing the UN coordination office in the form of a collective intelligence system.

Erik F. Øverland, President of the World Futures Studies Federation, reflects on the significance of this Pact and how to move forward, suggesting that “The Futures of Humankind are the Futures of Truth. Let’s move beyond current dichotomies like modernism vs postmodernism, Natural vs Artificial, and establish a sound foundation for Humankind Commons.” 

Underscoring the opportunities that this pact opens, Jeremy Wilken, board member of the Association of Professional Futurists, states that “The key insight is the call for the UN system to leverage foresight as a key part of the methodology for addressing the challenges we face. This provides a unique opportunity for practitioners and futures literates to make a large impact in shaping the implementation of foresight practices, since it was left largely undefined. For this to work, we need to embrace and expand the global diversity of the foresight community, help to realize new and expand existing multilateral institutions and practices, and find ways to increase the involvement of youth, women, and other marginalized groups.”

Although Garry Jacobs, President of the World Academy of Art and Science, considers the Pact "a powerful and idealistic statement,” he recalls what UN DSG Amina Mohammed said at a high-level event on education in April: “‘We need to focus on three words: ‘Implementation. Implementation. Implementation.’ We need more region-specific implementation strategies, as different regions may face unique challenges in applying the decisions. A framework of viable targets and indicators must be developed that addresses each of these strategies and scales of engagement. We need to harness advanced technologies, including cutting-edge Generative AI, to expand and enhance global capacity for the task at hand.”

Indeed, many share the concern that these agreements may end up being little more than symbolic promises. For instance, Nicolas Balcom Raleigh, President of the Foresight Europe Network, speaking as an individual, notes that “The Pact echoes worldwide concern about the present-day military conflicts, a reason people migrate and cause of great suffering to now-living generations.” However, he adds, “It is challenging to believe the sincerity of some of UN member states’ commitments expressed in the outcome document in light of the wars and armed conflicts which continued to kill, harm, and destroy during the Summit itself.” He proposes that, in the future, all parties should voluntarily agree to a worldwide ceasefire to honor the significance of the occasion.

While implementation remains a top concern, there is hope that the emphasis on future generations will guide lasting change; however, doubts about the true forward-looking potential of the Pact persist. “Nearly all paragraphs of the Pact for the Future and its annexes include expressions of norms and values which are largely based upon previously shared understandings in the UN System about what should be done concerning significant international issues already in view (…). The Summit’s Outcome Documents can be read as written expressions of collectively agreed present-day norms and values, which can illuminate purposefulness and the greater good in near-future decision-making,” Balcom Raleigh continues. 

Eppu Mikkonen, Development Policy Specialist at the Finnish Development NGOs Fingo, reinforces this point by stating: “The world and the solutions it describes are largely of the present (...). Yet we are on the brink of an unforeseen transformation of world population from pyramids to pillars—the future is older. It requires a whole new perspective.” Gabino Ayarza Sánchez, Founder of Ciudad del Saber, adds that “The future is moving at an unprecedented pace, driven by rapid technological advancements, societal shifts, and environmental pressures (…). The ability to adapt to these changes while maintaining ethical, sustainable, and inclusive frameworks will determine how well we navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.”

Mariana Todorova, Associate Professor in Futures Studies and Strategic Planning at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, says that while the Pact addresses nearly all of the problems and challenges of the future, “the document is static. That is, no synergies are foreseen, for example, between technologies, disruptions, and discontinuities, black swans. It does not account for the fact that both the problems and technologies will evolve and change. This is most evident in our issue—AGI. We no longer have time to stay at the level of mere observations.” 

José Luis Cordeiro, founding member of the Faculty of Singularity University, WAAS fellow, and Vice Chair of HumanityPlus, emphasizes the need to open possibilities: “Even though the general vision of a Pact for the Future might seem like a great idea now, we also have to consider the problems, for example, of a unique dystopian future like George Orwell’s 1984. Thus, with hindsight, instead of a monolithic world supervised by global bureaucrats, it is important to keep our minds open for more future possibilities as different countries improve their conditions (…).”

As stated earlier, the futures community has widely embraced specific commitments regarding the use of foresight. “It is pleasing to see the summit’s outcome documents mention an intention to increase the use of foresight in governments and in the UN system itself,” Balcom Raleigh says. However, he continues, “While all futures studies scholars, foresight practitioners, futures studies teachers, and students know that there are several far more dynamic methods for generating, exploring, and discussing ideas about the future, the summit proceedings—to the best of my knowledge—did not include any foresight workshop or exercise for its high-level participants. A future when all UN Member States and UN agencies actively and cooperatively conduct, share, and thoughtfully discuss foresight will require new skills and capacities in governments, organizations, and societies.” Futures literacy, mentioned in Annex II, “is in my view a general-purpose capability that would help all who attempt to launch, deepen, and network their foresight processes to do so more reflexively while moving inside the transformations they seek to catalyze.”

Eric Noël, initiator of the Canada Towards 2030 project, says that the commitments to improve long-term thinking and foresight in policy-making to safeguard the needs and interests of future generations “are bold, important, and timely for everyone, not just for futurists, foresight specialists or international treaty drafters; but the Declaration does not say how we will do that. Appointing a UN Special Envoy for Future Generations, probably boosting UN in-house foresight capacity, and maybe having ad-hoc follow-up forums won’t be either effective nor enough for the above to-do list. I think that creating a new and independent intergovernmental panel could do the ‘how to.’” That’s why during the Summit’s consultation in December 2023, the Canada Towards 2030 Project submitted the idea to launch a new panel named Intergovernmental Panel on the Future of Humanity (IPFH). Drawing a parallel to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPFH could “meet the commitment of producing, uniting, optimizing, and communicating independent and original futures studies and related long-term policy innovation and option among Member States, with and within the UN system, and, even more importantly, with civil society, private sector, academia, and NGOs. A global, panoramic, integrated, non-siloed, proactive, and highly competent ‘observatory’ would expand the world’s awareness of and preparedness for multiple, complex, and emerging trends and technologies that could affect tomorrow’s planet, people and policy.”

The Pact of the Future is a substantial document that touches on a wide range of topics, each serving as a catalyst for future discussions and actions. References to global challenges restate previous agreements with increased urgency and ambition in light of the Agenda 2030 and beyond. On the Pact’s ambitions, Ufuk Tarhan, member of the high advisory board of the Turkish Association of Futurists, says: “The UN’s Pact for the Future sets big goals, but faces major obstacles like energy shortages/costs, weak/no internet access, unfair financial systems and Income inequality, cyber security issues and AI governance. These challenges are tied to deeper political and economic issues, making progress hard since nations often prioritize their own interests. Corruption worsens this by misusing resources and breaking trust, essential for real change. The pact’s ideas for peace and digital fairness are inspiring, but ongoing conflicts over resources and the digital divide show how hard it is to put these plans into action. Young people are frustrated, often doubting whether global agreements will truly improve their lives. In reality, the pact might be better as a guideline rather than something strictly enforced. It could push for small, steady improvements, especially in areas like climate change. For real success, global agreements must turn into actions that make a difference locally. This requires not just international teamwork but also overcoming the cultural and system-wide challenges within individual countries. The key is to be realistic and patient, knowing that change takes time, especially in complex global and domestic environments.”

All things considered, many doubts remain regarding the three texts approved at the Summit of the Future. These doubts primarily concern the real political will to fulfill the stated purposes and commitments, the UN’s actual capacity to promote and implement them in the new multilateral system, and the availability of funding needed to support these commitments. Beyond these concerns, one fundamental issue seems to underlie all the texts: they lack a genuine forward-looking vision beyond mere rhetoric about the future. Nevertheless, there is reason for optimism; the Pact for the Future provides a promising framework for dialogue and collaboration, emphasizing the potential for innovative solutions and collective action to address pressing global challenges. Although “there are so many statements that make one shout: ‘Come on! How? Who?’” Glenn states, “people will be able to use this document to lobby their governments for better conditions saying, ‘You agreed to the Pact for the Future that includes doing X and now you should do X.’ May it help move the diverse masses of humanity, laws, politics, built environments, and global nervous system in improving directions.”

Similarly, Balcom Raleigh concludes that “the document did and will serve a purpose of driving consensus on urgent matters.” Guillermo Gándara, the recently elected President of the Red IBERoamericana de Prospectiva, states that “The Pact for the Future lays the foundations for answering the questions: How to respond to the needs of the present while preparing for the challenges of the future? And how can we better cooperate to make the aspirations of achieving better futures for everyone a reality? It seeks to accelerate efforts to fulfill our international commitments and adopt measures to face new challenges and take advantage of new opportunities that arise. In summary, the Pact for the Future represents a unique opportunity to demonstrate that international cooperation can respond effectively to the challenges that have arisen in recent years or those to come.”

Ibon Zugasti, Deputy Director of The Millennium Project and Managing Director of Prospektiker, adds, “The Pact may not be perfect, and may not respond to all the demands of the international community, but it establishes a framework and begins the work of aligning peace and security efforts more closely with sustainable development. The Pact needs to be approached in its entirety; its value comes from the sum of its parts—it is ultimately a forward-looking document.”

While the Pact for the Future lays the groundwork for meaningful collaboration, its successful implementation hinges on the alignment and support of major stakeholders, particularly in addressing pressing global challenges. There cannot be an effective implementation plan if the major actors influencing compliance are not aligned first. Although the Secretary-General Guterres has been heard by states and stakeholders, he has not received sufficient support to implement the commitments, especially in light of the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan.

Three critical issues urgently require resolution, and a basic consensus should be pursued immediately: Artificial General Intelligence, Climate Change, and Peace and Security. If a firm, practical consensus is not reached on these issues, much of the Pact will remain precarious and at risk of existential irrelevance. There must be a global mobilization—across civil society, science, business, think tanks and NGOs, and the broader public—pressing for compliance with the Pact and empowering the UN to generate feasible, actionable plans for each member state. Moreover, further contributions from the futures community will be essential to define long-term strategies that better anticipate future challenges, and the community is willing to continue contributing.

In conclusion, we wish to express our appreciation for the extensive efforts and diverse content encompassed in the Pact for the Future and its annexes. We join many others in hoping that this Pact will serve as a powerful catalyst for change, guiding humanity toward more long-term, integrated, and sustainable pathways, ensuring that future generations inherit a world that is not only viable but also thriving.