Futures Digest #3: State of the Future 20.0, Humanity's Options Ahead
The new version of The Millennium Project’s flagship publication is finally out!
The futures community has eagerly awaited it, and it's finally here: the State of the Future 20.0 by The Millennium Project, our global guide to the future since 1997.
The State of the Future 20.0 by Jerome Glenn, Theodore Gordon, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project team—a global think tank for futures research composed of over 70 Nodes around the world—is a monumental 500-page report that provides an extensive overview of the key issues and opportunities shaping the future of humanity.
The 20th edition is dedicated to Ted Gordon, a visionary whose contributions have profoundly shaped the future of futures research. I have had the opportunity to meet him over the years and exchange ideas, and I truly believe he is one of the most knowledgeable and gentle people I have ever encountered. Ted has pioneered more methodologies in the field of futures studies than any other futurist, as rightly noted in the tribute. This alone merits a dedicated post—or even a book—, so let’s return to the matter at hand.
The State of the Future represents a cumulative body of work, combining decades of research and incorporating contributions from hundreds of futurists and experts worldwide, along with numerous studies conducted by The Millennium Project. Each new edition extends further into the future, offering fresh insights and innovative proposals.
In releasing the 20th edition, Jerome Glenn, CEO and Co-Founder of The Millennium Project, said that this “500-page whopper could have the greatest breadth and depth on issues of the future of the world in existence today.” “We are winning more than we are losing,” he added, “but where we are losing is very serious; humanity has the resources to address these challenges, but not the decision-making yet.”
The Executive Summary of the State of the Future 20.0, available for free download, provides a concise yet impactful overview of the prospects for civilization. It offers a clear perspective on both present global challenges and future opportunities. This opening section sets the tone for the publication by highlighting critical trends and emerging possibilities, while preparing the reader for a deeper exploration of the strategies needed to navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected future.
Section 1 of the report by Jerome Glenn presents an updated overview of 15 major Global Challenges facing humanity, which The Millennium Project has been monitoring since the late 1990s. These challenges are considered equally important and interconnected, and each includes regional overviews and potential solutions, making the contents highly actionable for decision-makers at various levels.
In Section 2 by Elizabeth Florescu, the State of the Future Index 2035 integrates 29 different variables to assess whether the future is getting better or worse. This future scorecard is an indication of the outlook for the future based on a combination of quantitative data and judgements. It offers key insights into “areas where humanity is winning, losing, or stagnating”.
AI plays a major role in Sections 3 and 4 of the report. Section 3, coordinated by Jerome Glenn with contributions from José Cordeiro, Zhouying Jin, Mariana Todorova, and David Wood, focuses on the transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), reporting the major results of the first two phases of the ongoing study by The Millennium Project. The first addresses insights from 55 global AGI experts, answering 22 critical questions on the future development of AGI. From these insights, the study identifies 40 national and international regulations and 5 governance models, which are evaluated by an international panel of 299 experts in the second phase. These insights are crucial for shaping policy frameworks to ensure that the transition to AGI is managed safely, ethically, and in ways that benefit humanity. They will be followed by alternative scenarios very soon.
Fast-forwarding to 2045, Section 4 on Beneficial AGI, led by Jerome Glenn along with Verónica Ágreda de Pazo, José Cordeiro, Elizabeth Florescu, Theodore Gordon, and Maria Mateo, presents a scenario of a typical day in the world of 2045, where AGI has become an integral part of our daily life. This scenario explores how AGI could enhance the quality of life, solve complex societal challenges, and unlock new opportunities for human progress. The work, accompanied by answers about AGI, is a result of The Millennium Project's entry in the Future of Life Institute competition in 2022, where it reached the 4th place. You can watch the video to have an idea.
The report also aligns with the United Nations Secretary-General' Our Common Agenda, addressing its five key foresight elements in Section 5, led by Jerome Glenn. A Real-Time Delphi study by The Millennium Project, conducted in 2022 with 189 experts from 54 countries, highlights how the futures community supports these elements as an integrated system. The study evaluates their importance for global foresight and provides a synthesis of panel feedback, insights, and strategies for implementing UN reforms.
World Futures Day, , the focus of Section 6 that I had the pleasure of writing, synthesizes the 24-hour global discussions on the future held annually on March 1 by The Millennium Project and others since 2014. I must confess that I’m thrilled to have contributed by illustrating a method that I believe offers a significant opportunity for sharing and reflecting together on the futures. The insights shared by hundreds of participants each year are analyzed to produce Global Futures Agendas, capturing these collective views and guiding further conversations. The section illustrates the method and showcases some of the main key global perspectives from the latest WFDs that may help shape a better future.
In a particularly imaginative part of the publication, Section 7 by Jerome Glenn explores the possibilities of AI robots by 2050. It delves into potential applications of robots in governance, ocean exploration, space missions, and even in personal relationships, predicting that they will outnumber humans and be involved in everything from healthcare to space colonization. This futuristic vision paints a vivid picture of how robotics might reshape society in ways previously unimaginable.
The report concludes with policy recommendations aimed at addressing the global challenges and opportunities identified. These recommendations are designed to guide hard-headed pragmatic idealists in adopting forward-thinking strategies that promote sustainable development, encourage innovation, and ensure a better future for everyone.
As reported in the endorsements, Jehangir Khan (UN Council of Presidents of UNGA) considers the State of the Future 20.0 timely in view of the UN Summit of the Future and a must-read for all. Danica Purg (IEDC-Bled School of MGT) finds it essential for leaders concerned about AGI. Koo Yun-cheol (Minister of Government Policy Coordination, Republic of Korea) suggests considering the report a required textbook. Oana Stănilă (Bucharest University of Economic Studies) describes it as a valuable resource for business. Garry Jacobs (World Academy of Art and Science) views it as a visionary roadmap for global collaboration, and Gemma Santana (Choose for Climate) highlights the urgent need for sustainability as emphasized in the report.
The State of the Future 20.0 is one of the most thorough and insightful publications on future studies available today. It offers invaluable perspectives for globally minded citizens, policymakers, and researchers, providing the knowledge necessary to make informed decisions that will shape a more promising future. I look forward to exploring the insights and implications of this important work with all of you!
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