Futures Digest #2: Global Call for Governance of the Transition to AGI – Letter to the UNGA President

Experts urge the UN to explore regulating the transition to Artificial General Intelligence.

In a significant call for action, The Millennium Project, in collaboration with the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and the World Academy of Art and Science (WAAS), sent an open letter to the incoming President of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), His Excellency Mr. Philémon Yang, on September 9. The letter addresses the urgent need for governance in the rapidly evolving fields of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its upcoming Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Current efforts in governing the field focus on addressing the proliferation of Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) technologies, which are widespread today. However, there is often insufficient attention to the distinction between ANI and its potential evolutions into AGI and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), as outlined in the scenarios included in the “Work/Tech 2050” study by The Millennium Project, and to the development of global governance models for the transition to AGI, which is the subject of an ongoing study by the same organization.

Signed by 230 political, business, and academic leaders from around the globe, the letter expresses growing concerns about the safety and governance of the transition to AGI, a form of AI expected to emerge within the next decade. Unlike current AI systems—referred to as ANI, which excel in specific tasks—AGI would possess the ability to learn and perform a wide range of cognitive tasks, eventually surpassing human intelligence.

The signatories stress the critical need for establishing global regulatory frameworks before AGI systems are developed and deployed, and urge the UN General Assembly to convene a special session focused on the governance of the transition to AGI during its upcoming meeting in September. Specifically, they calls for a UN resolution to establish a "Committee of the willing" tasked with drafting a global convention on AI. This proposed convention would address both ANI and AGI, laying the groundwork for a specialized international agency responsible for overseeing the safe development and deployment of AI technologies.

This is not the first time that The Millennium Project and its partners have led similar initiatives. In 2021, following a global discussion held during World Futures Day on March 1, they proposed creating a UN Office on Strategic Threats to centralize and coordinate global efforts on long-range risks for humanity, including advanced AI, in an open letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Shortly thereafter, the UNGA Secretary-General released the well-known report titled “Our Common Agenda” that includes periodic UN Strategic Foresight and Global Threats reports among its foresight elements. But we’ll revisit that at a later date.

Today's open letter on the governance of the transition to AGI emphasizes the risks associated with unregulated AGI development, warning that without a coordinated effort involving national licensing systems and UN oversight, rogue versions of AGI could be released on the Internet. These systems could potentially rewrite their own code, continually increasing their intelligence at an exponential rate, and evolve into ASI, which would exceed human control and understanding.

Stuart Russell, a leading AI expert from the University of California, highlights the gravity of this situation, stating, "Failure to solve (this problem) before proceeding to create AGI systems would be a fatal mistake for human civilization", as reported by The Millennium Project.

As noted in the letter, the United Nations has made significant progress with the approval of AI-related General Assembly resolutions, the preparatory documents for the Pact for the Future and the Global Digital Compact, and with the advancement of work by ad-hoc expert groups on AI. However, the signatories believe that these efforts are not yet sufficient and that additional political and institutional support is needed to ensure that AI development remains safe and aligned with human rights.

The UN convention advocated in the letter should lead to the creation of a specialized multi-stakeholder, multilateral UN agency on Artificial Intelligence to continually study, guide, coordinate, and propose to member states the necessary measures and actions for the governance and safe development of Artificial Intelligence in all its forms.

A recent international study, set to be published in the upcoming “State of the Future 20.0” by The Millennium Project, found that such a structure for the agency is the most likely approach to ensure AI development aligns with human rights, ethical considerations, and the overall well-being of society. This governance model would involve the participation of a diverse array of stakeholders, working together to guide the transition to AGI in a safe and ethical manner.

The open letter to the President of the UN General Assembly underscores the urgency of addressing the governance of the transition to AGI as a global priority. Jerome Glenn, CEO and Co-Founder of The Millennium Project, describes governing this transition as "the most complex, difficult management problem humanity has ever faced." With AGI potentially revolutionizing every aspect of society, the need for robust, forward-thinking governance is more pressing than ever.

Speaking about WFSF's support for this initiative, its President Erik F. Øverland comments, "In a world where the distinction between the artificial and the natural is becoming increasingly blurred, it is more important than ever to regulate artificial intelligences."  

Similarly, Garry Jacobs, WAAS President and CEO, emphasizes the organization’s support for the letter, highlighting that "Addressing the governance of AGI is not just a technical challenge; it is a profound responsibility of both the scientists and technologies who create it and the policy-makers empowered to protect. WAAS stands firmly behind this call to the UN to prioritize and lead the global effort in ensuring that the development of AGI aligns with our shared values of safety, ethics, and human rights. It is imperative that we act now to establish robust frameworks and institutions capable of guiding this transformative technology in a manner that benefits all of humanity."  

Ambassador Héctor Casanueva, Coordinator of the initiative and Founder and Co-Chair of the Chile Node of The Millennium Project, emphasizes that "With this open letter, we are also showing the enormous moral and intellectual strength of hundreds of leaders and professionals from around the world to support the Secretary General of the UN in his call to UN members to take the risks of uncontrolled development and use of technology, and especially AGI, seriously, to strengthen human security through multilateralism".

In closing, the signatories call on the United Nations to take a leadership role in navigating this pivotal moment in human history. The safe development of AGI could either enhance the future of humanity or pose existential risks beyond our control. The governance of the transition to AGI is set to remain a major topic at forthcoming forums. As the world stands on the brink of an AI-driven transformation, the decisions made today will shape the future for generations to come.

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